Mathematical Epidemiology

Learn Epidemiological modelling and forecasting.
Different Mathematical Models. COVID 19 predictions for India and Indian States

Explore COVID19 Model

SIR Model Simulation

SIR Model is a simple epidemic model. This model predicts the susceptible, infectious and recovery for each day of India for different input parameters.

SIRU Model is another epidemic model, where unreported cases are also included in the model.


Indian States

Analysis of COVID19 for the states of India

Explore Data

342856123366133945847015260613/08/2021 23:27:2213197TT000
76517518129413/08/2021 23:27:220AN000
2066450204772214373435513/08/2021 23:27:220AP000
551555477428010113/08/2021 23:27:220AR000[July 25]: All numbers corresponding to Papum Pare and Captial Complex are tracked under Papum Pare district.
6106456009745997232713/08/2021 23:27:221347AS000[Jan 1]: 1347 cases i.e Covid +'tive patients dead for other reasons have been deducted fom active count.
72609871639096614613/08/2021 23:27:221BR000[June 9] : 3951 deceased cases have been reported in the bulletin after reconciliation of records by the authorities
65351644958203613/08/2021 23:27:220CH000
10060529921591357731613/08/2021 23:27:220CT000
10681106444213/08/2021 23:27:2231DN000
143987014144312509134813/08/2021 23:27:220DL000[July 14]: Value for the total tests conducted has been reduced by 97008 in the state bulletin. Reason given : "Reconciled with ICMR figures". We have made the same change.
178108174392336435213/08/2021 23:27:220GA000
8265778162831008920513/08/2021 23:27:220GJ000
7712527610681004913513/08/2021 23:27:220HR000
2241062184103738194213/08/2021 23:27:2216HP000
332249326915443290213/08/2021 23:27:220JK000
348764343518513810813/08/2021 23:27:220JH000
2988333294157838082864413/08/2021 23:27:2229KA000
49686574857181316817926613/08/2021 23:27:22529KL000
20962206872086713/08/2021 23:27:220LA000
103651027051013/08/2021 23:27:2244LD000
7928547822151052411513/08/2021 23:27:220MP000[14 Oct'20]: 4469 confirmed cases and 4469 recoveries added in MP bulletin as reconciliation with private labs and hospitals
[12 July'21] :1478 deceased cases have been added after reconciliation of deceased cases records from Home Isolation(208), Private Hospitals(762) and other districts data (508)
661107864505851402161665813/08/2021 23:27:223619MH000[Dec 16]:10,218 duplicate cases & other state cases removed from total cases.791 recovered cases also removed from total recovered cases while reconciling
[Sep 9] :239 cases have been removed from the hospitalized figures owing to the removal of duplicates and change of addresses as per the original residence
[Aug 15] : MH bulletin has reduced 819 confirmed cases in Mumbai and 72 confirmed cases from 'Other States' from the tally
[Jun 16] : 1328 deceased cases have been retroactively added to MH bulletin.
[Jun 20] : 69 deceased cases have been reduced based on state bulletin.
[Sep 9 2021]: 15066 positive cases and 15793 discharged cases have been reduced from state total based on reconciliation (as mentioned in the bulletin)
123731121102192170813/08/2021 23:27:220MN000[Dec 14]:824 out of 980 recovered cases are backdated.
8362781746145043113/08/2021 23:27:220ML000
121359114612432631513/08/2021 23:27:220MZ000
318422990468521013/08/2021 23:27:221043NL000
104145710291478386392413/08/2021 23:27:220OR000[July 12th] :20 non-covid deaths reported in state dashboard are included in the deceased count
128013125726185743013/08/2021 23:27:220PY000
6024015855911655925113/08/2021 23:27:220PB000
95442994544389543213/08/2021 23:27:220RJ000
319793106339619513/08/2021 23:27:22325SK000
000013/08/2021 23:27:220UN000MoHFW website reports that these are the 'cases that are being reassigned to states'.
27026232655015361161149213/08/2021 23:27:220TN000[June 29 2021]: TN has introduced a new district "Mayiladuthurai" in the bulletin and has assigned cases from Nagapattinam to the new district.
[July 22]: 444 backdated deceased entries added to Chennai in TN bulletin.
2 deaths cross notified to other states from Chennai and Coimbatore.
1 patient died after turning negative for infection in Chengalpattu.
These cases have been added to TN deceased tally
6714636634983956400913/08/2021 23:27:220TG000[July 27] : Telangana bulletin for the previous day is released on the next day. We will add the cases for Telangana against the date of release, as that is the convention that we are following for other states.
844688346681312613/08/2021 23:27:2263TR000[Aug 4]: Tripura bulletin for the previous day is released on the next day. We will add the cases for Tripura against the date of release, as that is the convention that we are following for other states.
171015816871512290010713/08/2021 23:27:220UP000[Jan 1]:As no bulletin was provided for 31'st Dec'20,its count has been combined with 1st Jan'21
[Jan 9]:Due to reconcillation there are 1286 cases.
343896330195740015113/08/2021 23:27:226150UT000[Oct 30]: Metric of capturing the testing data has switched to "Samples Tested" from "Samples Collected"
[Jun 30th'21]:145 confirmed cases and 218 deceased cases added of previous days after reconciliation with district and ICMR portal
1592908156547119141829613/08/2021 23:27:220WB000


Understand what is a Reproduction Number

Case Statistics for

COVID 19 India

Explore Data