Mathematical Epidemiology

Learn Epidemiological modelling and forecasting.
Different Mathematical Models. COVID 19 predictions for India and Indian States

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SIR Model Simulation

SIR Model is a simple epidemic model. This model predicts the susceptible, infectious and recovery for each day of India for different input parameters.

SIRU Model is another epidemic model, where unreported cases are also included in the model.


Indian States

Analysis of COVID19 for the states of India

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294976332812436737407998759013/06/2021 21:43:2911597TT58557883933672
7243699612612112/06/2021 21:02:280AN000
18098441712267119408563713/06/2021 18:51:250AP67701249258
3114827818143318712/06/2021 22:04:310AR000[July 25]: All numbers corresponding to Papum Pare and Captial Complex are tracked under Papum Pare district.
45733040877039154329812/06/2021 21:37:321347AS000[Jan 1]: 1347 cases i.e Covid +'tive patients dead for other reasons have been deducted fom active count.
7172157024119492531113/06/2021 19:42:271BR4878688[June 9] : 3951 deceased cases have been reported in the bulletin after reconciliation of records by the authorities
611105979879252013/06/2021 19:26:310CH54713
986504958111133111508212/06/2021 22:32:250CT000
104651033549312/06/2021 21:39:2633DN000
1431139140285024823346613/06/2021 18:51:260DL25537623[July 14]: Value for the total tests conducted has been reduced by 97008 in the state bulletin. Reason given : "Reconciled with ICMR figures". We have made the same change.
1624681546582928488213/06/2021 18:51:280GA42058114
81986679901299911086312/06/2021 20:43:270GJ000
7658617522088992466113/06/2021 20:54:260HR33982143
1983131895223368540212/06/2021 19:55:3421HP000
30741228814541861508113/06/2021 19:26:330JK774196512
3433043342565082396613/06/2021 08:21:300JH000
275732425327193278819179612/06/2021 19:42:4221KA000
272824025936251118212300613/06/2021 19:26:35427KL1158417856206Mahe native who expired in Kannur included in Kerala's deceased tally.
Some non-covid deaths have also been reported in the bulletin.
These have been reduced from active count
195441860119774613/06/2021 09:38:230LA000
917584834361512/06/2021 21:11:3634LD000
7881807753678546426713/06/2021 21:43:310MP27476715[Oct 14]: 4469 confirmed cases and 4469 recoveries added in MP bulletin as reconciliation with private labs and hospitals
5908992563927111110415558813/06/2021 21:43:333029MH1044275042771[Dec 16]:10,218 duplicate cases & other state cases removed from total cases.791 recovered cases also removed from total recovered cases while reconciling
[Sep 9] :239 cases have been removed from the hospitalized figures owing to the removal of duplicates and change of addresses as per the original residence
[Aug 15] : MH bulletin has reduced 819 confirmed cases in Mumbai and 72 confirmed cases from 'Other States' from the tally
[Jun 16] : 1328 deceased cases have been retroactively added to MH bulletin.
[Jun 20] : 69 deceased cases have been reduced based on state bulletin.
5985250379974849913/06/2021 19:42:320MN53072615[Dec 14]:824 out of 980 recovered cases are backdated.
4190636550733462313/06/2021 13:16:270ML3055476
152661166163354213/06/2021 18:51:290MZ3451161
2364419026453350213/06/2021 18:42:29663NL822045
85178279679933555162813/06/2021 21:43:350OR4469773345[July 12th] :20 non-covid deaths reported in state dashboard are included in the deceased count
1125281055131684533113/06/2021 13:16:310PY4028097
586947557380155031406413/06/2021 08:21:350PB000
9496849334218822744113/06/2021 19:26:390RJ30812607
1841414334281355313/06/2021 19:05:28246SK1573870
000019/07/2020 09:40:010UN000MoHFW website reports that these are the 'cases that are being reassigned to states'.
235372121742472954714992713/06/2021 19:43:310TN1401625895267[July 22]: 444 backdated deceased entries added to Chennai in TN bulletin.
2 deaths cross notified to other states from Chennai and Coimbatore.
1 patient died after turning negative for infection in Chengalpattu.
These cases have been added to TN deceased tally
60336957874834842113713/06/2021 21:43:370TG1280226115[July 27] : Telangana bulletin for the previous day is released on the next day. We will add the cases for Telangana against the date of release, as that is the convention that we are following for other states.
5908352861610558913/06/2021 13:16:3223TR5657039[Aug 4]: Tripura bulletin for the previous day is released on the next day. We will add the cases for Tripura against the date of release, as that is the convention that we are following for other states.
1702624167185221786898613/06/2021 19:21:370UP452122151[Jan 1]:As no bulletin was provided for 31'st Dec'20,its count has been combined with 1st Jan'21
[Jan 9]:Due to reconcillation there are 1286 cases.
3368793196636935452913/06/2021 21:43:395752UT2637337[Oct 30]: Metric of capturing the testing data has switched to "Samples Tested" from "Samples Collected"
14612571426710168961765113/06/2021 19:26:430WB3984249784


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Case Statistics for

COVID 19 India

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